Using historical records of lion range and models which use environmental and ecological predictors of lion density, as well as measures of human density and land use, Professor Andrew Loveridge and Dr Lara Sousa and the Wildlife Conservation Research Unit of the University of Oxford’s team, recently modelled the most likely baseline for lion populations in Africa.

Loveridge states in his recently published paper Where have all the lions gone? Establishing realistic baselines to assess decline and recovery of African lions that at present there are around 23 000 lions across Africa. The team’s research suggests that in 1970, the estimated population size was more than 92,000 across the continent.

Based on this historical data, Loveridge and the team also found that most lion populations were connected and in contact with each other until relatively recently, with the most drastic declines in such distribution happening in the last 50 years.

Loveridge says that the study was important as perceptions of wildlife loss are often informed only by the reductions which take place within an observer’s lifetime. He also stated that, the losses which happened in previous generations, can be underestimated if not recognised.

Loveridge explains in the paper that understanding the true extent of historical declines is important in deciding how to maintain landscapes in which these animals can connect, and, to implement effective conservation efforts.

It is also necessary to understand these decreases as African lions are an umbrella species, and their declining populations are strong indicators of the declines experienced by many other large-bodied species.

He warns that failure to appreciate the magnitude and drivers of past loss may lead to an underestimation of contemporary extinction risk.

In a discussion of the collapsing of the range of the landscape that lions used to be distributed in, Loveridge says this collapse has been driven by habitat loss and persecution by humans. He predicts that these threats are predicted to accelerate and become more severe in the next 50 to 100 years.

He says that the extent of core lion habitat has almost universally declined and become increasingly fragmented. Many formerly contiguous core areas have been fragmented into small isolated and less permeable habitat patches.

Species with such highly fragmented ranges face a high risk of extinction with small, isolated populations vulnerable to random environmental processes.

The future of lions depends critically on the management of protected areas which are worryingly under-resourced, and sadly many are failing. As such, securing the protection of African conservation areas through greater investment in protected area management is crucial.

Loveridge recommends that lion groups should be more connected to maintain core areas to maintain gene flow. Another option is the protection of existing movement corridors that allow movement of both lions and other species between patches of natural habitat.

Although not referred to by Loveridge in his report, the trade in live animals and their parts is also a contributing factor to the decline of species, including big cats. While wild populations of lions and other big cats are in decline, there are huge numbers of captive big cats across the world.

Loveridge and his research team’s new paper, published in Diversity and Distributions, provides an important tool to facilitate conservation decision-making, and avoi0d the risks associated with ever-shifting perceptions of the ‘original’, baseline state of populations. Click on the link to read the paper.